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blaster
thecouch -at- overpressure.com
yes, an homage to jonah
pittspilot
pittspilot -at- overpressure.com
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February 28, 2005 |
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So what's up with Syria?
I heard a bit on XM's ABC news radio broadcast the other day that was a "Newsweek Minute" or something like that, where they were talking to a Newsweek reporter. The topic was Syria, and the reporter was going on about how Syria wasn't really a bad guy country, that they were more likely to go like Libya than Iran. He cited some help we had gotten from Syrian intelligence to catch terrorists. The upshot of all this was that the Bush administration was wrong for pressuring Syria, because they were going to turn off this erstwhile friend.
Now, I have been arguing that we have been trying to get Syria to pull a Libya since last July (and also arguing that Iran is trying to distract us from Syria in that same post), but it obviously has not yet happened. The Hariri assassination is an indicator. The Newsweek guy cited Assad's replacement of his intelligence chief as a sign of good will, that perhaps he didn't have control of his intelligence and that he placed his brother-in-law in charge to get control of his rogue agency that was doing stuff he didn't approve of. I don't think it was good will, it was an attempt to save his ass. And then I see this over at Captain Ed's: "Syria Coughed Up Saddam's Brother."
Seems they turned over Saddam's brother and about 30 insurgent leaders who have been - surprise surprise - hiding out in Syria! And, this after we've ratched up the pressure on them! Could it be that our pressuring them is what is making them do (some of) the right things, not a tyrant's good will? Maybe the pressure will make them pull a Libya.
Let's hope so.
posted by blaster at 06:55 AM | Comments (1)
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February 23, 2005 |
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Girl on Girl Action
That should rev up the Google hits.
I opined before why I thought that Rice 2008 probably won't happen (though it isn't impossible). Ace gots more on that, essentially in the same vein.
But because I am a lazy blogger, I didn't write my piece on Clinton 2008, and why that will happen (meaning all the way to the Presidency). So James Taranto got way out in front of me on that issue. Like that's never happened.
Anyway, what Taranto said, and more. Much has been made about Senator Clinton drifting right in her speech. If that is indeed what is happening, she's about 10,000 times smarter than Howard Dean. Dean goes around saying that he'll talk differently about God and values and such, but doesn't actually do it, and when he does, he's already telegraphed the plan and it wll be spotted for the phoniness that it is, or will be. Plus, whether she means it or not, she can get away with it by her party. The same nastiness that was launched on Tim Roemer will not be brought to bear on Senator Clinton even if she came out full-bore pro-life.
All of her baggage will be deeply discounted as old news - if it couldn't burn President Clinton, it surely isn't hot enough to singe her by association. And most importantly, she is the one Democrat potential candidate who appears to "get it" about the war on terror. The American people will not vote for someone rooting for our failure in that conflict. She has proven through her record that she is serious about it - even voting "Yea" for Michael Chertoff as Homeland Security Secretary.
She even sounded more positive about Iraq than did John McCain. Think whatever you will of the politics of the Clintons, but they certainly are always aware of which way the wind blows - by saying the insurgency is failing, she is saying that we are winning.
She is smart enough to know that she won't be running against George W. Bush in 2008, so she doesn't waste energy on that.
You know, if we could make deals on voting, I would agree to this deal - I'd vote Hillary if it meant for sure that the Left and the press (same thing, I know) would get on board on the US side of the conflict.
posted by blaster at 03:23 PM | Comments (8)
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February 20, 2005 |
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More "Frontline"
The outreach coordinator sent me another email.:
The first, "A Company of Soldiers" (see PBS and AFN Spectrum broadcast dates below), is a powerful first-hand account of the War in Iraq through the eyes of the men and women fighting it. Viewers are with the troops as they come under sniper fire, respond to car bombings, work with the Iraqi people to restore the country's economy and infrastructure, and grapple with the daily possibility of fatal attacks.
"The Soldier's Heart" (see PBS and AFN Spectrum broadcast dates below), tells the stories of soldiers returning from Iraq and suffering the psychological effects of what they've seen, done, or not done, during their tour of duty. The film includes interviews with returning troops, their families, and mental health experts about the challenges of readjusting to civilian life.
We've paired these two films to give viewers a glimpse into the tough realities faced by our troops at war and the subsequent psychological fallout--an underreported story of the War in Iraq. I've pasted a short description of each film below for your convenience with links to the full press releases. For your convenience, I've also included broadcast dates for American Forces Network.
Please contact me if I can be of assistance. I encourage you to forward or post this message.
Sincerely, Jessica Smith
A COMPANY OF SOLDIERS
Airs Tuesday, February 22, at 9 P.M. on PBS (check local listings)
Airs Thursday, February 24, at 9 P.M. on AFN Spectrum (viewer time (CET/JST/KST)
FRONTLINE reports from inside the U.S. Army’s 8th Cavalry Regiment stationed in Baghdad for an up-close, intimate look at the dangers facing an American military unit in Iraq. Shot in the weeks following the U.S. presidential election, the film tracks the day-to-day challenges facing the 8th Cavalry’s Dog Company as it suddenly has to cope with a dramatic increase in attacks by the insurgents.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/company/
THE SOLDIER’S HEART
Airs Tuesday, March 1, at 9 P.M. on PBS (check local listings)
Airs Thursday, March 3, at 9 P.M. on AFN Spectrum (viewer time (CET/JST/KST)
As the War in Iraq continues, the first measures of its psychological toll are coming in. A medical study estimates that more than one in seven returning veterans are expected to suffer from major depression, anxiety, or Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. For those who have survived the fighting, the battle is not over. For some, the return home can be as painful as war itself. FRONTLINE tells the stories of soldiers who have come home haunted by their experiences and asks whether the government is doing enough to help.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/heart/
Some Frontline shows are better than others - these may be pretty good - another press release I have seen on "A Company of Soldiers" includes this:
One senior confidential source at the Pentagon who has seen the film told us: "It is compelling stuff. It proves once again that it is our Soldiers who are our best spokespeople. It is not only courageous filmmaking (both figuratively and literally), but it's also an example of very insightful filmmaking. The film captures our Soldiers' humanity, putting a human face on a very complex set of issues - that is priceless stuff."
Then again, it might be like the last time I was alerted to a Frontline show - a vehicle to attack US policy. Who knows. But I'll probably watch both.
posted by blaster at 09:54 PM | Comments (1)
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You heard it here first
Results of the Iraqi election are out. No party has a majority, but it seems rather unlikely that Allawi - whose party got a small portion of the vote - will be the new Prime Minister. And, as predicted, this is being called a failure for the United States. But I am surprised at who the first winner of this prize is - Michael Ledeen:
The Allawi list was outvoted five to one by its major opponents, even though Allawi commanded a treasure chest vastly greater than that of the others. Ambassador Negroponte, Secretary of State Rice, and DCI Goss should tell their "experts" to admit error, and cease their efforts to install a president and prime minister who reflect the consensus of Foggy Bottom rather than the will of the Iraqi people. If they persist in attempting to dictate the makeup of the new Iraqi government, and continue to meddle in the drafting of the new Iraqi constitution, they will turn the majority of Iraqis against us. Despite countless errors of judgment and commission, we have, for the moment at least, won a glorious victory. We should be smart enough, and modest enough, to accept it.
I think that this is wrong for the same reason that the MSM will get it wrong when the leadership is announced - I think that this has always been the expected outcome. Just looking at demographics, it is the most likely outcome, so I am not sure why we would be expecting anything differently. Maybe the folks at State who want "stability" and the CIA that is obviously not all that good at gathering and analyzing intelligence expected something different, but they were not driving the train in Iraq. The President was. And as in the "Palestinian situation," the President seems to have "gotten it" in ways that plenty of wise people on the topic haven't.
The rest of this Ledeen piece is pretty good, though for those who are convinced of neocon evil, this will be considered a climbdown: "The instrument of their destruction is democratic revolution, not war, and the first salvo in the political battle of Iran is national referendum." But this has always been Ledeen's position. And I think that it is also the President's position. I think the current attention on Iran is a sideshow designed to distract from Syria - and the Iranians are behind that design.
posted by blaster at 11:13 AM | Comments (0)
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February 11, 2005 |
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Stuff I've blown off
I haven't had anything to say about a lot of things, not posting much. So here's some quick hits. Eason Jordan. Another big media blog takedown. I bet those guys are all shitting bricks, now. The New York Times, CBS News, and CNN - their journalistic integrity is all in tatters. The bias is exposed, and the editors are shown as enablers, not watchdogs.
Elections in Iraq - went pretty well, once again we see the President's wisdom. When the results come out, remember my prediction, and warning:
Likely Sistani's slate will do very well, and Allawi will not be the new President of Iraq. This will be reported as a huge defeat for the US, and Sistani's Shi'ites will be compared to Iran's. Don't believe either.
I think the results are supposed to be announced starting this weekend. We'll see what is said.
Ward Churchill. Simply not interested in that whole thing. A wacked out professor says loony things? Shocker.
Jim Gannon? Please. If that's bigtime for Kos and company, well, enjoy.
Condi Rice 2008? Sorry, but she's never run a campaign. I think that's important. Americans tend to shy away from hiring political novices to the top spot. Unless they defeated Nazi Germany or the Confederacy or something like that. If Condi can pull of a full meal peace deal out of the Middle East, all bets are off, though. Abu Abbas may be able to determine our next President.
posted by blaster at 09:44 PM | Comments (0)
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February 10, 2005 |
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I've gone satellite
I wrote about my first experience with satellite radio a while ago. THat time it was Sirius. I loved the programming, but was concerned about signal coverage. A friend recommended XM. It's cheaper than Sirius, and has better signal.
I finally took the plunge and got one. I am very impressed with the coverage, though I think part of it is that the terrestrial repeaters reach out to where I live near DC. Which is fine. But it is great. The number of talkers available is pretty cool - no Rush, but Hannity, John Batchelor, Savage if you go for that, Glenn Beck, etc. and so on. And they are in digital clarity, and never preempted by Maryland basketball. There are lefty talkers, too, but I wouldn't know if they are anybody anyone has ever heard of. I suspect not.
The programming is a little less specifically targeted than the Sirius Streams. And in naming the channels, they go cutesy rather than descriptive. The "New Wave" channels on XM are named Fred, Ethel, and Lucy. Not exactly what I would have picked, but whatever.
But I'll never go back to regular radio. It's great. However, I have a funny XM moment. I was on travel in a hotel, and had on Audio Visions, which is kind of an ambient channel. At about 4 am, I woke up - gurgling water! The bathroom was overflowing! No, just the selection on the radio. Whew. But then the sound of a bubbling brook in the early morning worked its biological magic, and I had to get up.
Note to programmers - not a good 4 am selection!
posted by blaster at 08:35 PM | Comments (1)
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Iran and North Korea
One thing that pittspilot writes below is that we won't be able to prevent Iran and North Korea from getting nuclear weapons. Well, we've suspected that NK has had them since 1994, so that particular barn door is swinging on its rusty hinges in the wind.
But what is interesting is that these two issues are front and center at the same time. Secretary Rice took great pains to say that there were no plans to attack Iran. And suddenly they are all wild-eyed, saying they will do what they damn well please, and that emotional woman is going to make them make nuclear weapons. Oooo-kay.
Meanwhile, halfway around the world, Kim Jong Il is not even mentioned, so he starts stomping his feet, too. Hah, we do have nuclear weapons!!! And we'll pull out of the 6-way talks!!! Bwahahahahaaa!
It is almost as if these guys are working in concert to do bad things. Like they were in some sort of Axis of Evil or something!
Here's my take. Right now, the target box falls on Syria, which is working in concert with Iran to defeat our plans in Iraq. Hizb'allah folks were recently arrested in Iraq. Hizb'allah is - or was - the joint enterprise of Syria and Iran in Lebanon, attacking Israel. And they are the terrorist group that has killed the second largest group of Americans, behind Al Qaeda. The Ba'athist "resistance" leaders operating out of Syria are causing us too much trouble, we are going to have to take the battle to where they are. Which happens to be Syria.
Iran's bluster - and North Korea's - is strategic. They are taking the heat off of Syria by going all nutty. Conventional wisdom says the military is too stretched and we don't have any moral authority to do anything after Iraq. Which is why these guys are acting in what appear to be irrational, anti-survival ways. They are waving red flags at the bull because they think there is a fence there.
At the same time, if we focus on Syria, there will be people who will say that we are detracting from the "real problems," Iran and/or North Korea.
That's all fine and dandy. But I think we have their number.
posted by blaster at 03:17 PM | Comments (8)
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Why we are going to lose the argument to the Anti-War Folks
If you have been reading my stuff for a while, you should have noticed a pessimistic streak. I do tend that way, a trait that can be helpful, and then again not
I have spent the last couple of years watching the argument about Bush's strategy for the War on Terror, and have come to the conclusion that it is not going to hold out. It has for this long, but it is going to implode in the face of it's own structural weakness, the inherent institutional weakness of the American political systems and the unremitting attacks on the strategy by both anti-war folks, the MSM, and the world at large. I cannot see anything else happening, and invite anyone to try and change my mind.
Let me explain, so that weaknesses in my logic can be pointed out.
Initially we deal with the inherent weakness of the argument. Lawyers hate defending the least worst scenario. It's a weak position, because definitionally your argument is weak.
Bush's argument about the War on Terror has always been the least worst solution. That is not his fault. The Western world has been kicking the problem of Islamic Facism down the road for decades. One the one hand this is understandable, on the other it was shortsighted. Once technology caught up with us, and made nukes and other horrors available, the problem became one that we could no longer ignore. Especially in the harsh light of 9/11, although many people had been warning since the early 80's.
But the light of 9/11 revealed a problem that was far bigger then we could deal with in light of current political considerations. In fact the problem may be insoluble regardless of political considerations.
The problem, in a nutshell, consisted of Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, N. Korea, Syria, Afghanistan, and a number of others. The problem was that all these nations were working, either together loosely, or by themselves to create a WMD armed Islamic Fascist entity. I realize that this is oversimplified, but it basically holds.
This has to be prevented, especially in light of 9/11. The problem, of course is how? Bush chose the strategy of taking down Afghanistan first and then turning to Iraq, believing that this would have a braking effect on the efforts of the others. At least, that is what I see the strategy as being. The problem is that the strategy is not all that great, but is forced onto the Administration by political and pragmatic considerations.
After all, we could not turn to the UN. I think the deficiences of that body are well documented, and we could not have stopped the WMD race through them. The Europeans are constitutionally incapable of helping us. I think they have been militarily defanged, and without fangs, diplomacy is useless. There would, of course, be economic leverage, but this is dissipated by Oil.
Thus, outside of attackign with everything we have, something that is not politically or pragmatically possible, we are forced to deal with the puzzle a piece at a time. That would be fine, if time were not so short.
The other problem is that this piecemeal approach is vunerable to attack because it is the least worse solution. Who likes to slog through the worst solution? No human I know. It gets especially tough because the solution is highly susceptable to being nitpicked to death. After all, it's not like the solution is perfect. It makes it even worse when the political considerations make rejoinder to the nitpicking impossible for the proponent.
The Bush Administration faces a number of political considerations when advancing its argument. To be sure, the Administration has not done the best job at advancing its argument, but the obstacles must be recognized.
The first dehabilitating one is the fundamental assertion that our prior diplomatic and military efforts have been completely flawed when dealing with this situation. The Administration simply cannot come out and say that. There must be continuity between Administrations for a number of other reasons, and there is because the State Department employees and CIA employees and others survive from one Administration to the next. Changing the minds of those entities takes time, something we do not have in surplus.
The next problem is the electorate. The Bush Adminstration is faced with the competing demands of educating the electorate, while trying to keep its strategy somewhat quiet. Naturally while educating the electorate, the Administration will face a hostile media, and hostile opposition. And in addition to the hostile elements, the Administration must make the argument of Islamic Facism, without crossing institutional redlines. By this, I mean that the Administration must consider popular values such as tolerance, open-mindedness, and diversity that have been instilled into the population for decades now. For a thorough dissertation see Closing of the American Mind by Allan Bloom.
The Administration had to make a case for prosecuting an action against Islamic elements that were, in my opinion, hopelessly entangled with mainstream elements of the Islamic religion. We, as Americans, seem incapable of this discussion without lasping into generalities about tolerance for divergent viewpoints. It's become institutional in our opinion making process, and I see no way around it. It's the downside of the tolerance injected into out system. We respect all divergent viewpoints, even when that viewpoint wants to kill us all.
This institutional flaw allows those opposed to this strategy to attack it without having to suggest an alternative. If the opposition had a better alternative, they would have already won this fight. I am also open to better alternatives.
However, looking at public opinion, I think it is clear that we cannot keep fighting the least worst alternative, especially when it is losing. I think we are going to be unable to stop Iran and N. Korea from exploding a nuke. The problem is that if we lose this argument, we will be forced back into doing nothing. And while we do nothing, the Islamo-Facists will be busy. They will force us into the next move. I fear that our hand will be forced by a large scale chemical or nuclear attack.
At that point, it's all out war.
So please, point out where I am wrong?
posted by pittspilot at 01:12 PM | Comments (2)
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February 1, 2005 |
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What's scary? Bush being right.
People are pointing to this column and Jon Stewart's statement about Bush maybe being right in the euphoria over the Iraqi election. It reveals something powerful. That the Left fears George Bush (and hence the United States) succeeding more than it fears losing to the terrorists. I guess this opens up a lot of "I told you so's," but this was revealed a long time ago - Chris Matthews said it explicitly on Hardball a while back:
If we do succeed in reconstructing Iraq along the lines of a moderate democracy, then the people who supported the intervention, the preemptive act, the preventive attack on that country, will say we were right. That‘s the problem.
And if he's right about Iraq, maybe he's right about the whole Middle East, the problem is a scarcity of freedom. After Arafat's death, it seems Bush was right about him, too. UPDATE: I actually had a specific point in mind when I got started with this post, and forgot it as I wrote. My point is, even with this writer saying "maybe Bush was right," his immediate concern then is our "exit strategy." I continue to say that the phrase "exit strategy" has been GEN Powell's biggest disservice to this country. There are no exit strategies, there is only victory or loss. Note that we have troops in Germany, Italy, and Japan today. And you know what, we talk about withdrawing troops, and they aren't parading in the streets - they get mad that we are leaving.
posted by blaster at 06:51 PM | Comments (1)
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