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w February 8, 2003

Why orange now?

Judging from a number of reasons, I think the real reason for the increased threat level is that hostilities in Iraq are imminent. Extremely imminent.



posted by blaster at 10:08 PM | Comments (0)


w

What you can do

Interesting footnote to the increase in Threat Level. While the government cannot force people to take specific measures for themselves, the Attorney General did have some suggestions:

One of the thoughts that I would just simply share with you, it's probably not a bad idea to sit down and just arrange some kind of a contact plan, that if an event occurred you want to make sure you can -- the family wants to get in touch with one another. That's not a bad thing to do to prepare in advance of any kind of emergency, whether it's a natural disaster or a terrorist attack. Doesn't take a great deal of time. And I think it would make family members a lot more comfortable if they knew they were able to get in touch with one another in the event something happened.
He's absolutely right, though probably disaster preparedness planning ought to encompass more than just a contact plan. In October 2001, there was considerable concern that a radiological dispersal device (commonly called a "dirty bomb") would be used in Washington, DC, or in New York. Since I live in the DC suburbs, I relied on my experience serving in the Army in Europe to make our plans. We used to have NEO plans - non-combatant evacuation operations - for the families in Europe if war ever occured. We were all supposed to keep a bag packed for each family member, and some other measures, like keeping gas tanks at least half full. It is hard to keep up that kind of awareness, but it is something to at least think about. Since that October, Mrs. Blaster and I have had a contact plan, and a meeting plan if we ever had to evacuate, but were separated. We have our bags and a "Bug Out Box" packed so if the call is made, we can make a hasty exit from town. With the recent announcement of the threat level increase, looks like tomorrow will be a good time to review our box and make sure the contents are still good.


The Homeland Security website has a couple of references to refer to for planning - the Red Cross website has links to some documents on actions that can be taken, and if you dig down depper in the site, you can find recommendations for disaster preparedness. There is also a link to the FEMA preparedness site which is also a good resource.


Here is the list that I maintain for the Bug Out Box:


  • Blanket
  • Safety Pins
  • Bible
  • Diapers
  • Baby Wipes
  • Baby Rice Cereal
  • Crackers
  • Contact Lens Soln
  • Dried Fruit
  • UHT Milk
  • First Aid Kit
  • Antihistimines
  • Razors
  • Soap
  • Shampoo
  • Min-bottles
  • Cooking Utensils
  • Leatherman Tool
  • Instant Coffee
  • Paper Towels
  • Matches
  • Pass the Pigs
  • Plastic Cups
  • Flashlight
  • Garbage Bags
  • Pediasure
  • Pedialyte
  • TP
  • Map Eastern US
  • Radio
  • Dust Masks
  • Brush
  • Toothpaste
  • Tent
  • Money Belt
  • Cloth Diapers
  • Power Bars
  • Water

Remember, it isn't being paranoid, it is being prepared. And, from a practical standpoint, if you keep some stuff like this around, you won't be standing in line at the grocery store before the next snowstorm or hurricane or whatever other emergency might come.



posted by blaster at 08:53 PM | Comments (0)


w

Threat Condition - High

Friday the Attorney General announced that the Homeland Security Threat Level was being raised to "High," or Orange.


This color coded Advisory System garners a lot of ridicule, because most people do not understand what it is. Mostly, I think people don't understand it because the Homeland Security folks have not sufficiently explained it. I used to dislike the system, too, because it did not really communicate enough information to someone in the public to take any actions. The military THREATCON system upon which it is modeled communicates very specific things. The military system starts at THREATCON Alpha and escalates to Delta. Alpha is essentially no threat, and Delta means that either there is a specific and credible threat on a particular location or that one has just occured. On a military base, each condition is answered with a set of required actions and optional actions.


The general public cannot operate the same way. The government cannot, and should not, be directing civilian and commercial establishments and individuals on specific measures and procedures that they should be following. They can only do so with the organizations which they can and do control and influence - Federal departments, agencies, facilities, law enforcement, and the like. And that is what the system does - directs specific measures to be taken by those organizations. The Government cannot - and they are not trying to - direct individuals with instructions, like "if the threat level is Orange, everyone must take differing ways home from work every day." The system can only make the public aware of what the current situation is, not specific actions to take.


I don't think I have ever seen anyone explain the system in this way before where people really see things - on TV. Seems like Tom Ridge ought to be on all the Sunday shows tomorrow explaining just that. You can find an explanation of the system that isn't so direct at the White House website for Homeland Security.



posted by blaster at 08:02 PM | Comments (0)


w

Other ways the left is wrong

Patrick Ruffini linked to this post of mine with the following comment:

And this isn't getting nearly enough attention as a casus belli.
Actually, that particular incident would not have bearing on the current situation as a casus belli. Operation Provide Comfort was a response to UN Security Council Resolution 688, which was itself a response to Iraqi military attacks on the Kurds of Northern Iraq, including chemical attacks. That particular discovery was of a round most likely used in a prior series of chemical attacks on the Kurds in 1988.


One of the things that the Left likes to say is that the US has never cared before about Iraqi chemical weapons. That this concern is all recent, and is being used to drum up support for a war now, so of course W and Cheney can get their hands on all that Iraqi oil. Once again, recent history is ignored, and falsehoods spread in order to tar the United States in general, and George Bush in particular. But the truth is out there. The United States made up the bulk of the forces that supported Operation Provide Comfort. UNSC 688 is the basis of our continued enforcement of the "no-fly zones." Had US forces not entered Northern Iraq in 1991, Hussein would have continued to use all means at his disposal, including chemical weapons, against the Kurdish people.


By the way, mine is not the only account of a situation like this in Northern Iraq. While reasearching some things, I came across this declassified account of a similar incident on the military website for Gulf War syndrome:

2. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] REPLIED THAT THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ARTICLE WAS TRUE. ACCORDING TO ( (b)(1) sec 1.3 (a)(3) ) CONCERNING THE INCIDENT, 25 PEOPLE WERE TREATED AT A LOCAL HOSPITAL FROM WHAT WAS APPARENTLY A CHEMICAL AGENT, WHICH WAS
RELEASED WHEN AN APPARENT IRAQI PRODUCED CHEMICAL ARTILLERY ROUND WAS CUT OPEN. ( (b)(1) sec 1.3 (a)(3) ) SAID THAT THE ITEM APPEARED TO BE VERY OLD, HAD NO NUMBERS OR OTHER MARKINGS AND WAS
IN A HIGHLY DETERIORATED CONDITION. ACCORDING TO ( (b)(1) sec 1.3 (a) (3) ) A SCRAP DEALER EITHER PICKED UP OR PURCHASED THE ITEM FROM AN IRAQI SCRAP DEALER NEAR OR IN THE MOSUL AREA.
THE TURKISH PURCHASER COULD NOT REMEMBER EXACTLY WHERE HE ACQUIRED THE ITEM. AT THIS POINT ( (b)(1) sec 1.3 (a)(3) ) SAID THAT THE TURKISH PURCHASER WAS APPARENTLY EVASIVE AS TO WHERE AND HOW HE ACQUIRED A CHEMICAL MUNITION.
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(3) ] SAID THAT ALL 25 PEOPLE EFFECTED BY THE AGENT WERE TREATED AT A LOCAL HOSPITAL AND RELEASED AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF OBSERVATION AND SUFFERED NO LONG TERM ILL EFFECTS. ASKED IF [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] HAD MADE ANY DETERMINATION OF THE TYPE OF AGENT OR HAD ANY INFORMATION WHICH WOULD FURTHER IDENTIFY THE TYPE OF MUNITION. [ (b)(7)(D) ] STATED THAT DUE TO THE SHORT TERM EFFECT OF THE AGENT, [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] THEN STATED THAT DUE TO THE AGE AND HIGHLY DETERIORATED STATE OF THE OBJECT, WHATEVER AGENT WAS PRESENT WAS PROBABLY APPROACHING AN INERT STATE. [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ].
The bottom line is that the United States and the West have taken military action against Saddam Hussein when he used chemical weapons - even on "brown people" - in the past. Everyone is entitled to his own opinion. Everyone is not entitled to his own facts.



posted by blaster at 07:36 PM | Comments (0)


w February 5, 2003

Calling Ted Rall!

I am reading the Jeffrey Goldberg article in the New Yorker about intelligence matters, and he starts recounting his story of travels with then UN Ambassador Bill Richardson. This paragraph caught my eye:

Richardson persisted; so did the Taliban. Richardson consulted his State Department and N.S.C. advisers; we waited to see how far he would push the matter. He dropped it, and continued with the agenda, which included a discussion of the possibility of running an oil pipeline across parts of Taliban territory. We were then led to a banquet hall, where we were served rice and pigeon as gunmen circled the table.
Emphasis mine. Now I thought that W was the guy tied to the oil interests who wanted that pipeline. And Bill Clinton's guy is in there talking to the Taliban about it in 1998?


Hmmmmm.



posted by blaster at 10:15 AM | Comments (0)


w February 4, 2003

See, I told you so!

(via LGF)

Registration plan nets six terror suspects

WASHINGTON, Feb. 4 (UPI) -- The requirement for male visitors from several Muslim countries to register with the Immigration and Naturalization Service while in the United States has resulted in the arrest of at least six terror suspects, a U.S. official who asked not to be named told United Press International.

Article here.


Christopher Hitchens is right - "just you wait." The people on the left are going to look mighty silly when this is all over.



posted by blaster at 11:32 PM | Comments (0)


w

Shuttling blame

I didn't want to get back to the shuttle because I agree with Andrew Sullivan and Jonah Goldberg that I don't want to dwell on the tragedy. And I surely can't write anything better about moving on than James Lileks.


The hunt to pin this on someone is certainly natural. And I don't know what to think about how NASA dealt with the potential problems from the launch. I cannot believe that literally hundreds of engineers looked at a system as complex as the shuttle and said, " yeah, it will probably be okay." I have to believe that if more than a couple of people thought that there was any potential for serious damage, they would have checked it out.


The only thing that gives me a little pause is that during the NASA briefing, they said that there was no way to check the condition of the wing and tiles because there was no arm fitted to the shuttle. That bothers me, because unlike Apollo 13, the astronauts aren't up there alone anymore. If there was real concern, seems they could have done a drive by the Space Station and asked them to look. Sure, it would have meant scrapping the mission, but it would have been better than burning through the sky.


I believe and I hope that the reason why they chose not to do that is the safety analysis of the event determined that there was no potential for harm. And it may be that this is indeed the case, that the failure was unrelated.


I just wonder why they said there was no way to check.



posted by blaster at 05:13 PM | Comments (0)


w

Congratulations!

Patrick Ruffini got engaged. Maestro in Tyson's - nice pick.


However, I am thinking wedding blog = bad idea. Unless she's going to be primary author.



posted by blaster at 12:55 AM | Comments (0)


w

Not an entirely encouraging development

U.S. Bombers on Alert to Deploy as Warning to North Koreans

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has put 24 long-range bombers on alert for possible deployment within range of North Korea, both to deter "opportunism" at a moment when Washington is focused on Iraq and to give President Bush military options if diplomacy fails to halt North Korea's effort to produce nuclear weapons, officials said today.

Certainly we need to ensure the North Koreans know we mean business, but unless those long range bombers are loaded up with B-61's, I don't know how much of a deterrent they can be.


I love Rummy like he was my own blood, but I don't think the US can do Korea and Iraq at the same time.



posted by blaster at 12:25 AM | Comments (0)


w February 2, 2003

There is a disturbance in the blogosphere

Wes Dabney has also moved. To a Movable Type site, too. At http://www.number10gi.us


Hmmm.



posted by blaster at 11:23 PM | Comments (0)


w

Clubbeaux has moved

New digs, evidently a Movable Type setup. Now at http://www.clubbeaux.com.


Given the whole blogger/blogspot reliability issue, I think I can see why. The stats that come along with BlogSpot Plus have been b0rken for a while now - and I wish I could see my visitors. I set up a Linux server in the home office and put on MT - I've managed to completely replicate this blogspot site in MT. Hmmmm.


Well, I'm here for now. But if blogger/blogspot gets any worse, I know I can move to an MT hosted site.



posted by blaster at 08:23 PM | Comments (0)